diff --git a/PROGRESS.md b/PROGRESS.md
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+++ b/PROGRESS.md
@@ -20,7 +20,15 @@
 - Transactional emails (order confirmation, shipping notification)
 - Demo content polished and ready for production
 
-**Tier 1 MVP complete.** CI pipeline done. Hosting & deployment done (including observability). PageSpeed CI done (99-100 mobile, 97+ desktop). Next up: usability fixes from user testing, then remaining Tier 2 items (Litestream backup, e2e tests).
+**Tier 1 MVP complete.** CI pipeline done. Hosting & deployment done (including observability). PageSpeed CI done (99-100 mobile, 97+ desktop). Usability fixes mostly done (15/18). Next up: setup wizard, then real product data, then shipping costs.
+
+## Next Up: Setup Wizard → Real Products → Shipping
+
+Three linked tasks to make the shop fully functional for real orders:
+
+1. **Setup wizard & go-live gate** — coming soon page for public visitors, admin setup checklist, go-live toggle. See [docs/plans/setup-wizard.md](docs/plans/setup-wizard.md)
+2. **Wire real product data** — replace PreviewData with Products context on shop pages (depends on setup wizard being done so there's a gate while testing)
+3. **Shipping costs at checkout** — Printify shipping rates or Stripe shipping options (depends on real products being connected)
 
 ## Usability Issues (from user testing, Feb 2025)
 
diff --git a/docs/plans/setup-wizard.md b/docs/plans/setup-wizard.md
new file mode 100644
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+# Plan: Setup wizard and "go live" gate
+
+Status: Pending
+
+## Overview
+
+The shop currently shows demo/preview data to all visitors with no admin account creation flow, open registration, and no gate between setup and going live. This plan adds a proper first-run setup wizard that:
+
+1. Creates the single admin account (replacing the open `/users/register` endpoint)
+2. Guides the admin through connecting Printify and Stripe
+3. Gates the public shop behind a "coming soon" page until setup is complete
+4. Provides a "go live" toggle
+
+## Dependency chain
+
+```
+Setup wizard/gate → Real product data on shop pages → Shipping costs at checkout
+```
+
+This plan covers the first piece. The other two are separate tasks that build on top.
+
+## Current state
+
+- `/users/register` is open to anyone — no user limit, no role system
+- All registered users get full admin access to `/admin/*` routes
+- No "first run" detection — fresh installs show the demo shop to everyone
+- No way to close registration after the first user
+
+## Design: single-admin, closed registration
+
+SimpleShop is single-tenant: one shop, one admin. The setup wizard replaces the generic registration flow entirely.
+
+### Fresh install flow
+
+```
+1. Fresh install (no users in DB)
+   → All public routes redirect to /setup
+   → /setup shows "Create your admin account" form (email input)
+   → Magic link email sent → user confirms → account created
+   → Registration permanently closed (one user = done)
+
+2. Admin logged in, setup incomplete
+   → Admin sees /admin/setup checklist
+   → Connect Printify → Sync products → Connect Stripe
+   → Public visitors see "coming soon" page
+
+3. Admin clicks "Go live"
+   → Public visitors see the real shop
+   → Admin can take offline again if needed
+```
+
+### Registration lockdown
+
+- `Accounts.has_admin?/0` — checks if any user exists (simple count > 0)
+- When `has_admin?()` is true, `/users/register` redirects to `/users/log-in`
+- The `/setup` route also redirects to `/users/log-in` if admin already exists
+- No new users can ever be created after the first one
+
+## Prerequisites check
+
+The setup wizard checks three things before allowing "go live":
+
+| Step | How to check | Module/function |
+|------|-------------|-----------------|
+| Printify connected | `Products.get_provider_connection_by_type("printify")` returns a connection with a non-nil `api_key_encrypted` | `SimpleshopTheme.Products` |
+| Products synced | `Products.count_products_for_connection(conn.id) > 0` | `SimpleshopTheme.Products` |
+| Stripe connected | `Settings.has_secret?("stripe_api_key")` | `SimpleshopTheme.Settings` |
+
+Optional (nice-to-have, not blocking go-live):
+- Stripe webhook configured: `Settings.has_secret?("stripe_webhook_signing_secret")`
+- Shop name customised: `theme_settings.site_name != "SimpleShop"` (or similar default check)
+
+## Changes
+
+### 1. `Accounts.has_admin?/0` and registration lockdown
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme/accounts.ex`
+
+- Add `has_admin?/0` — `Repo.exists?(User)` (any user = admin exists)
+- This is the single check that gates registration
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme_web/live/user_live/registration.ex`
+
+- In `mount/3`, check `Accounts.has_admin?()` — if true, redirect to `/users/log-in` with a flash like "Registration is closed"
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme_web/router.ex`
+
+- No route changes needed yet — the LiveView mount handles the redirect
+
+**Estimate:** 20 mins
+
+### 2. Add `site_live` setting and setup status
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme/settings.ex`
+
+- Add `site_live?/0` — reads `get_setting("shop", "site_live")`, returns boolean (default `false`)
+- Add `set_site_live/1` — writes `put_setting("shop", "site_live", value)`
+
+No migration needed — settings table already stores arbitrary key/value pairs.
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme/setup.ex` (new module)
+
+- `setup_status/0` returns a map:
+  ```elixir
+  %{
+    admin_created: boolean,
+    printify_connected: boolean,
+    products_synced: boolean,
+    product_count: integer,
+    stripe_connected: boolean,
+    site_live: boolean,
+    can_go_live: boolean  # all three service prerequisites met
+  }
+  ```
+- Keep it simple — a single function that queries current state, no caching
+
+**Estimate:** 30 mins
+
+### 3. Fresh install redirect (no admin exists)
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme_web/hooks/theme_hook.ex`
+
+ThemeHook already runs on every public shop page mount. Add early check:
+
+- If `Accounts.has_admin?()` is false → redirect to `/setup`
+- This catches the fresh install case before any other logic runs
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme_web/live/setup_live.ex` (new)
+
+A simple public LiveView at `/setup` that:
+- If admin already exists → redirect to `/users/log-in`
+- If no admin → show "Welcome to SimpleShop" with email input form
+- On submit → calls `Accounts.register_user/1` and sends magic link
+- Shows "Check your email" confirmation
+
+This reuses the existing registration logic but with a different UI (setup-focused, not generic registration).
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme_web/router.ex`
+
+- Add `/setup` route in a minimal live_session (no ThemeHook, no CartHook — avoids the redirect loop)
+
+**Estimate:** 1.5 hours
+
+### 4. "Coming soon" page for public visitors
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme_web/hooks/theme_hook.ex`
+
+Extend the ThemeHook logic (after the fresh install check):
+
+- If `site_live?()` is false AND user is not authenticated → redirect to `/coming-soon`
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme_web/live/shop_live/coming_soon.ex` (new)
+
+Minimal LiveView:
+- Uses the shop root layout (gets theme styling) but no nav/footer
+- Shows site name/logo, "Coming soon" heading, optional tagline
+- No redirect loop — this page itself doesn't trigger the gate
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme_web/router.ex`
+
+- Add `/coming-soon` route in the public shop live_session but mark it as exempt from the gate (via assign or separate handling in ThemeHook)
+
+**Estimate:** 1 hour
+
+### 5. Admin setup checklist page
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme_web/live/admin/setup_live.ex` (new)
+
+Admin page at `/admin/setup` showing:
+
+- **Step 1: Connect Printify** — status indicator (done/not done), link to `/admin/providers`
+- **Step 2: Sync products** — status (X products synced / none yet), link to `/admin/providers`
+- **Step 3: Connect Stripe** — status indicator, link to `/admin/settings`
+- **Go live button** — enabled only when `can_go_live` is true
+- **Take offline button** — when already live, allows switching back
+
+Each step shows what to do and links to where to do it. Feels like guided onboarding, not a settings dump.
+
+**Files:**
+- `lib/simpleshop_theme_web/live/admin/setup_live.ex`
+- Router update to add the route
+- Admin nav update to include "Setup" link (prominent when not live)
+
+**Estimate:** 2 hours
+
+### 6. Admin bar "not live" indicator
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme_web/components/shop_components/layout.ex`
+
+- When shop is not live, show a banner in the admin bar: "Your shop is not live — [Complete setup →]"
+- When shop is live, the setup page becomes a less prominent settings link
+
+**Estimate:** 30 mins
+
+### 7. Post-login redirect for fresh admin
+
+**File:** `lib/simpleshop_theme_web/user_auth.ex`
+
+- After confirming magic link (first login ever), redirect to `/admin/setup` instead of `/`
+- Subsequent logins go to `/` as normal (or `/admin/setup` if not live yet)
+
+Could be as simple as: if `site_live?()` is false, `signed_in_path` returns `/admin/setup`
+
+**Estimate:** 20 mins
+
+## Task breakdown
+
+| # | Task | Files | Estimate |
+|---|------|-------|----------|
+| 1 | `has_admin?/0` + lock registration | accounts.ex, registration.ex | 20 mins |
+| 2 | `site_live?/0`, `set_site_live/1`, `Setup.setup_status/0` | settings.ex, setup.ex | 30 mins |
+| 3 | Fresh install setup page (`/setup`) | setup_live.ex, router.ex | 1.5 hours |
+| 4 | Coming soon page + ThemeHook gate | coming_soon.ex, theme_hook.ex, router.ex | 1 hour |
+| 5 | Admin setup checklist (`/admin/setup`) | admin/setup_live.ex, router.ex | 2 hours |
+| 6 | Admin bar "not live" indicator | layout.ex | 30 mins |
+| 7 | Post-login redirect to setup | user_auth.ex | 20 mins |
+| 8 | Tests | test files | 1.5 hours |
+
+**Total estimate:** ~7-8 hours across 3-4 sessions
+
+## Downstream tasks (separate plans)
+
+### Wire real product data into shop pages
+
+Currently `ShopLive.Home` and other pages use `PreviewData.products()` / `PreviewData.categories()`. Once real products exist:
+
+- Replace `PreviewData` calls with `Products.list_products/1` queries
+- Fall back to preview data when no real products exist (keeps the theme editor working)
+- Collection page already uses real data via the Products context — verify it works end-to-end
+
+**Estimate:** 1-2 hours
+
+### Shipping costs at checkout
+
+Options:
+- **Stripe shipping rates:** Define fixed shipping rates in Stripe, pass them to Checkout Session
+- **Printify shipping query:** Call Printify's shipping API to get real rates based on destination
+- **Hybrid:** Use Printify rates but configure via Stripe's dynamic shipping option
+
+**Estimate:** 2-4 hours (needs research)
+
+## Testing
+
+- `has_admin?/0` returns false with no users, true with one
+- Registration redirects when admin exists
+- Fresh install: all public routes redirect to `/setup`
+- `/setup` creates admin account and sends magic link
+- `/setup` redirects to login when admin already exists
+- Coming soon page renders when not live + not authenticated
+- Admin bypasses coming soon and sees the full shop
+- Setup checklist shows correct status for each step
+- Go live button works and flips the gate
+- After going live, public visitors see the real shop
+- Take offline button works
+
+## Platform compatibility (Tier 5)
+
+This design is forward-compatible with the hosted platform (per-tenant databases):
+
+- **`has_admin?/0`** checks the local DB — naturally scoped to the tenant
+- **`site_live?/0`** is per-DB — each tenant goes live independently
+- **`setup_status/0`** queries local state — all per-tenant
+
+The only difference is how the admin account arrives:
+- **Self-hosted:** Admin visits `/setup`, enters email, confirms magic link
+- **Platform:** Provisioning layer pre-seeds the admin user in the tenant DB during sign-up. `has_admin?()` is already true, so `/setup` redirects to login and the setup wizard starts at service connections
+
+No code changes needed for this — the platform layer just calls `Accounts.register_user/1` directly instead of going through the `/setup` UI. The setup checklist, go-live gate, and coming soon page all work identically in both modes.
+
+## Open questions
+
+- Should the coming soon page be themeable (use current theme colours/fonts) or a fixed design? Leaning themeable — it's a nice preview of the brand.
+- Should `/admin/setup` replace `/admin/settings` or sit alongside it? Alongside, with setup as the landing page post-registration.
+- Should we cache `has_admin?/0` to avoid a DB query on every page load? Probably fine uncached for single-tenant — one tiny query. Could use an ETS flag if it becomes an issue.